Updated with 02/24/2020 data. 03/20/2020 data is moved to the end for reference.

Our response to COVID-19 is directly proportional to the actions that are taken. If we fail to act we will have Italy’s fate. If we act quickly and decisively we will have South Korea’s fate. It comes down to testing and where on the scale of social distancing that is taken. All the data is taken from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ using yesterday’s tab, which is the data from 03/20/2020. I use yesterday’s data since the new cases are for a full day instead of a partial day. I have reported on the top 10 countries by total cases. New York has been included along The first bar chart shows total cases and new cases.

3/24/2020
Country Total Cases New Cases Tot Cases / 1M pop Growth Rate Population
China 81,171 78 59 0% 1,386,000,000
Italy 69,176 5,249 1,144 8% 60,480,000
USA 54,856 11,075 168 20% 327,200,000
Spain 42,058 6,922 901 16% 46,660,000
Germany 32,991 3,935 398 12% 82,970,000
USA-NY 28,508 5,602 93 20% 307,660,000
NY 26,348 5,473 1,348 21% 19,540,000
Iran 24,811 1,762 306 7% 81,160,000
France 22,304 2,448 333 11% 66,990,000
S. Korea 9,037 76 176 1% 51,470,000
UK 8,227 150 124 2% 66,440,000

 

According to this data, China even though the virus started there and leaked out, they have done an amazing job keeping the new cases to a minimum. South Korea is the shining star of the bunch. The virus was taken seriously very early on, their tactics and results speak to their wisdom. This second bar chart I believe shows a clearer picture of where we are at.

Total cases per 1M shows the population saturation. China and the US have very low population saturation.This is where Italy’s failure is clear. Along with Spain and NY. The growth rate shows where we are going. A 10% growth rate on a 100 cases means tomorrow there will be 110 cases. USA and Germany’s growth rate are over 20%. At a 20% growth rate the cases will over double in 4 days! NY has a growth rate of 36% which will double in 2-3 days. I do believe that this is biased since testing is ramping up. However, in my opinion anything over 10% is out of control. China, Iran and South Korea all have low growth rates with China’s being 0.05%. The biggest takeaway is NY is out of control, what can we learn from South Korea and the other countries to learn what to copy and from Italy what to avoid. “Do we want to go the direction of South Korea and really be aggressive and lower our mortality rates, or do we want to go the direction of Italy?” US Surgeon General Jerome Adams. https://thebulletin.org/2020/03/south-korea-learned-its-successful-covid-19-strategy-from-a-previous-coronavirus-outbreak-mers/ The first half of the article is a history lesson on MERS and the second half is how they used the knowledge from MERS to combat COVID-19.

Now, lets dive a little deeper into NY.I have selfishly chosen Westchester county, where my brother lives and the worst hit county outside of NYC. I also chose Monroe County where I live in western NY. This data is from https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html which is an excellent resource. The data is from 03/25/2020 around noon though. Westchester has a higher total cases per 1M than anywhere by far! Monroe County on the other hand is below the US average. This highlights the need to parse the data down more refined than we see reported in general. The data is undoubtedly skewed by the wave of testing being done.

3/24/2020
Country Total Cases New Cases Tot Cases / 1M pop Growth Rate Population
China 81,171 78 59 0% 1,386,000,000
Italy 69,176 5,249 1,144 8% 60,480,000
USA 54,856 11,075 168 20% 327,200,000
Spain 42,058 6,922 901 16% 46,660,000
Germany 32,991 3,935 398 12% 82,970,000
USA-NY 28,508 5,602 93 20% 307,660,000
NY 26,348 5,473 1,348 21% 19,540,000
Iran 24,811 1,762 306 7% 81,160,000
France 22,304 2,448 333 11% 66,990,000
S. Korea 9,037 76 176 1% 51,470,000
UK 8,227 150 124 2% 66,440,000
Westchester 3,891 3,969 980,244
Monroe 106 142 747,642

Since this is a world wide issue with a virus that is highly contagious, has a high morbidity rate and a long incubation time drastic actions need to be taken. This virus is everywhere and spreading fast. The only option for now is social distancing providing the scientists the time required to develop better treatments and hopefully a vaccine. Please help us all by at a MINIMUM following the suggestions of the government. Ideally everyone in the world will maximize hygiene and minimize social interactions so that we can get back to normal ASAP.

I hope that this helps, stay safe!

Rob Stupplebeen

3/20/2020
Country Total Cases New Cases Tot Cases / 1M pop Growth Rate Population
China 80,967 39 58 0.05% 1,386,000,000
Italy 47,021 5,986 777 12.7% 60,480,000
Spain 21,571 3,494 462 16.2% 46,660,000
Germany 19,848 4,528 239 22.8% 82,970,000
Iran 19,644 1,237 242 6.3% 81,160,000
USA 19,383 5,594 59 28.9% 327,200,000
France 12,612 1,617 188 12.8% 66,990,000
USA-NY 10,985 2,563 36 23.3% 307,660,000
S. Korea 8,652 87 168 1.0% 51,470,000
NY 8,398 3,031 430 36.1% 19,540,000
Westchester County 1,091 1,113 980,244
Monroe County 36 48 747,642